Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b75…6bb0 sports 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,186 (-7%) realized −$12,505 · open +$1,319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%136W / 235L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,578est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$14,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$23,318
14 days−$14,823
30 days−$10,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$6,878
other 29% −$3,514
crypto 4% −$2,371
world 3% +$2,127
culture 1% −$1,800
finance 1% +$52
politics 1% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -51.5% -56.1% 14% 14% -61.4%
≤30d 176 -17.4% -25.2% 32% 31% -21.1%
≤90d 282 -6.9% -15.7% 35% 34% -16.8%
all 371 -7.1% -15.9% 37% 35% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 35% -17.9%
10% -24.0% 33% -25.8%
15% -31.3% 31% -32.9%
20% -38.0% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$508) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$284 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$14,237
Realized−$12,505
Unrealized+$1,319
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses136 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,578
Open positions13
Markets (closed)371 / 388
History coverage246d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,893 $3,043 −$851 (-22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2,211 $2,767 +$557 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,212 $1,904 −$308 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,123 $1,450 +$327 (+29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $618 $1,211 +$593 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 60¢ 100¢ $700 $1,168 +$468 (+67%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $541 $631 +$90 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $540 $520 −$20 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 46¢ 100¢ $197 $428 +$231 (+117%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 81¢ $181 $302 +$120 (+66%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $103 $232 +$129 (+125%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$54 -27%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,012 +$618 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$109 -22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $253 −$98 -39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $143 −$116 -81%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $236 −$227 -96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 17 $592 −$243 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $558 −$558 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $404 −$404 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$202 +982%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$296 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $608 +$483 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$20 -92%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,017 −$542 -53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $687 −$482 -70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $563 −$206 -36%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$13 -27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $305 +$362 +119%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 +$487 +159%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $407 −$53 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $272 −$12 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 −$174 -34%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $129 −$100 -78%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 62¢ $506 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $184 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $200 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $102 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 22h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 34¢ $149 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 23h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $203 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,629 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $1,012 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $384 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $155 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $204 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $49 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $102 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $103 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $102 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $204 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,237.15 · official $14,166.89 (match) · 1564 history records