Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8B 0x8b72…3098 world 69 markets active 4h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$642 (+6%) realized +$572 · open +$70
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%40W / 19L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$535
14 days+$601
30 days+$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$1,108
finance 19% −$274
politics 4% +$63
other 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +52.7% +38.1% 90% 80% +36.2%
≤30d 20 +17.7% +6.5% 70% 65% +11.3%
≤90d 41 +11.8% +1.2% 66% 56% -0.2%
all 59 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 54% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 54% -0.4%
10% -8.4% 36% -9.9%
15% -17.3% 25% -18.6%
20% -25.4% 20% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$70 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,265
Realized+$572
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses40 / 19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)59 / 69
History coverage128d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 90¢ $318 $362 +$44 (+14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $203 $227 +$23 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $172 $182 +$10 (+6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $119 $121 +$2 (+2%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 58¢ 58¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $43 $31 −$12 (-27%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $128 +$21 +17%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 19 $21 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $100 +$66 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $187 +$16 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $150 +$40 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $135 +$115 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $265 +$220 +83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$38 +160%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $156 +$62 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $90 −$63 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $191 +$21 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $80 −$76 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $46 −$11 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $85 −$64 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 21 $166 +$30 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 15 $120 +$47 +39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $201 +$217 +108%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $82 +$69 +83%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $16 −$2 -11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $130 −$59 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $376 −$374 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $208 +$36 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 25 $292 +$27 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 25 $160 +$10 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $100 +$83 +83%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $100 +$54 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $93 +$108 +116%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $115 −$100 -87%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $367 +$29 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $36 +$6 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $100 +$16 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 30 $62 −$24 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $114 −$73 -64%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 21 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 21 $760 +$94 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $212 +$13 +6%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 08 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $420 −$417 -99%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 08 $23 −$8 -34%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $266 +$19 +7%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 07 $290 +$117 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $161 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $149 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 37¢ $21 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 18¢ $19 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $172 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $185 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $10 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $16 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $0 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $51 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $124 22h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $166 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.