Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b71…917c crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$366 (+10%) realized +$363 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate83%39W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days+$334
14 days+$334
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$39
other 38% +$276
world 19% +$149
politics 5% −$42
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +7.9% -2.4% 83% 40% +3.7%
≤30d 47 +7.9% -2.4% 83% 40% +3.7%
≤90d 47 +7.9% -2.4% 83% 40% +3.7%
all 47 +7.9% -2.4% 83% 40% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 40% +3.7%
10% -11.7% 28% -6.2%
15% -20.2% 19% -15.3%
20% -28.1% 9% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,226
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses39 / 8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)47 / 61
History coverage9d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $342 $341 −$2 (-1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-33%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $20 +$27 +133%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $130 +$119 +92%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $132 +$101 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$22 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French p Jun 19 $68 −$40 -59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $94 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$20 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$15 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$14 +43%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 +$97 +63%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 23m
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 40h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $248 42h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 85¢ $172 42h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 26¢ $54 43h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 20¢ $61 43h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.50 · official $1,226.50 (match) · 138 history records