Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b6d…ece3 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,079 (-14%) realized −$1,079 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%49W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$29
world 21% −$268
sports 21% −$685
crypto 8% −$231
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.8% +25.5% 100% 100% +25.5%
≤30d 16 -45.7% -50.9% 31% 25% -41.6%
≤90d 27 -58.7% -62.6% 26% 19% -42.6%
all 104 -28.6% -35.4% 47% 32% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 32% -25.8%
10% -41.6% 25% -32.9%
15% -47.2% 20% -39.4%
20% -52.4% 14% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$39 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized−$1,079
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses49 / 55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)104 / 108
History coverage349d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $248 $247 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $179 $173 −$5 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $158 $164 +$7 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $139 +$54 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $33 +$34 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$15 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$1 -3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $382 +$14 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $12 −$11 -93%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5) Mar 26 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? Mar 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Ugo Humbert vs Guy Den Ouden Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Zeynep Sonmez Mar 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $268 +$6 +2%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $76 −$43 -57%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $3 +$1 +42%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $269 −$34 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 07 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 06 $51 +$24 +47%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 06 $65 −$14 -21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $76 −$12 -16%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $79 −$3 -4%
Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Feb 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Feb 12 $6 −$5 -81%
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jaume Munar Feb 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group St Feb 05 $10 −$7 -70%
Open Sud de France: Hamad Medjedovic vs Stan Wawrinka Feb 04 $93 +$2 +2%
Open Sud de France: Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac Feb 04 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 04 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $83 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $98 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $148 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $37 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $67 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $70 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $75 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $212 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $192 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $192 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $139 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $139 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $124 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $73 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $73 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $73 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $33 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.80 · official $739.80 (match) · 303 history records