Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b6d…4324
crypto · 638 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$709 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$130 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses357 / 318
Open positions1
Markets (closed)675 / 638
History coverage19d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day151.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 675 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$103
14 days−$121
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -377%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -601%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$2 -904%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$3 -27662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$3 -796%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -7966%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$191
other 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 41% -16.2%
≤30d 675 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 52% -7.7%
≤90d 675 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 52% -7.7%
all 675 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 49% -16.5%
15% -23.7% 45% -24.6%
20% -31.2% 38% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $1.95 (match) · 3500 history records