Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8b6b…5c93 crypto 365 markets active 10h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%247W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$34
other 2% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 22% -10.2%
≤30d 155 -1.0% -10.5% 75% 26% -10.4%
≤90d 365 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 32% -13.0%
all 365 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 32% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -13.0%
10% -21.6% 11% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 4% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses247 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 82¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 86¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 28h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 852 history records