Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b6a…0ad2 crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$114 (+13%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%114W / 45L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$93
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +9.9% -0.6% 74% 69% +7.7%
≤30d 159 +2.6% -7.2% 72% 48% -0.6%
≤90d 159 +2.6% -7.2% 72% 48% -0.6%
all 159 +2.6% -7.2% 72% 48% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 48% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -10.1%
15% -24.2% 38% -18.8%
20% -31.6% 20% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses114 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $22 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $21 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records