Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b68…795b
sports · 710 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$1,264 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,254 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$1,254
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses214 / 490
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)704 / 710
History coverage523d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 4 History 704 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$44
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Yes 28¢ 72¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+159%)
Will Club ABB win on 2026-06-12? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will US Cremonese vs. Juventus end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Grizzlies 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Maple Leafs 34¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? No 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yuan Kimberly Birrell 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Blue Jackets 37¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bears vs. 49ers Bears 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 +$47 +513%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -98%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$19 +186%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $25 −$24 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $8 +$16 +197%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $12 +$121 +982%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$15 +333%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $22 −$2 -7%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 +$7 +129%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $5 +$2 +32%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
AIK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 2.5 May 30 $4 +$3 +62%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
AIK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$1,182
other 11% +$94
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $14 1h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Club ABB win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Korea Republic vs. Czec BUY 5¢ $5 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win BUY 10¢ $5 23h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 3d
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 24¢ $25 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $8 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 8d
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 8d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 8d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 36¢ $18 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $19 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 23¢ $10 9d
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 27% 27% -14.4%
≤30d 198 -8.4% -17.2% 29% 29% -2.2%
≤90d 364 -5.8% -14.8% 31% 31% -8.1%
all 704 -3.4% -12.6% 30% 30% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 30% -0.6%
10% -20.9% 30% -10.1%
15% -28.6% 29% -18.8%
20% -35.6% 28% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.12 · official $39.12 (match) · 1153 history records