Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8b64…6fe6 crypto 1672 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$171 (+2%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%882W / 570L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day93.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$12
14 days+$733
30 days+$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$871
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 46% -5.7%
≤30d 1452 +16.1% +5.0% 61% 60% +3.2%
≤90d 1452 +16.1% +5.0% 61% 60% +3.2%
all 1452 +16.1% +5.0% 61% 60% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 60% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 58% -6.7%
15% -14.2% 55% -15.7%
20% -22.6% 48% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses882 / 570
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1452 / 1672
History coverage21d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day93.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1452 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$9 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +198%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2858 history records