Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b61…2c99
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$3 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit13%
Chart Positions 8 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +235%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$1
sports 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +49.4% +35.2% 67% 50% +34.2%
≤30d 7 +43.0% +29.4% 71% 43% +28.7%
≤90d 7 +43.0% +29.4% 71% 43% +28.7%
all 7 +43.0% +29.4% 71% 43% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 43% +28.7%
10% +17.0% 29% +16.3%
15% +5.7% 29% +5.1%
20% -4.6% 29% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.75 · official $8.75 (match) · 22 history records