Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5d…57d3 weather 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,979 (+9%) realized +$1,958 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%158W / 254L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$121
14 days+$242
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$1,181
sports 2% −$23
other 1% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.7% -7.0% 40% 39% -4.6%
≤30d 209 -9.8% -18.4% 36% 35% -10.1%
≤90d 412 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 37% -4.0%
all 412 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 37% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 37% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -13.2%
15% -25.5% 34% -21.6%
20% -32.8% 33% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$41 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized+$1,958
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses158 / 254
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions18
Markets (closed)412 / 430
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 46¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $43 $53 +$10 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $63 $43 −$20 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 52¢ $21 $42 +$20 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $51 $36 −$15 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $14 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$93 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$66 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$63 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$46 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$40 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$58 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$58 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$70 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$37 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$100 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$73 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$68 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $35 −$24 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$39 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$29 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$100 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$37 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$45 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $70 +$90 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$81 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $68 +$66 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $53 −$52 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 −$77 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $71 +$105 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$120 +324%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $59 −$58 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $83 −$81 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 41m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.84 · official $601.84 (match) · 3500 history records