Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b5a…00f2
other · 73 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$338,398 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$337,964 · open −$434
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$176,538
Realized−$337,964
Unrealized−$434
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses23 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 73
History coverage283d
Avg bet$20,470
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 7 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106,134
7 days−$106,134
14 days−$4,720
30 days−$4,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $137,636 $135,869 −$1,767 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20,867 $22,676 +$1,809 (+9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $9,600 $9,300 −$300 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $7,950 $8,025 +$75 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $850 $657 −$193 (-23%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $62 $10 −$53 (-84%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4,841 $0 −$4,841 (-100%)
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $511 $0 −$511 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $32,928 $0 −$32,928 (-100%)
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? No 21¢ 0¢ $8,400 $0 −$8,400 (-100%)
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown? No 50¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1,062 $0 −$1,062 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31? No 48¢ 0¢ $7,306 $0 −$7,306 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $48,354 $0 −$48,354 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10,404 $0 −$10,404 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $16,444 $0 −$16,444 (-100%)
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? No 67¢ 0¢ $80,400 $0 −$80,400 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $42,010 $0 −$42,010 (-100%)
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $861 $0 −$861 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4,920 $0 −$4,920 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? No 41¢ 0¢ $15,254 $0 −$15,254 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $4,841 −$4,841 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Jun 12 $8,400 −$8,400 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a success Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $16,444 −$16,444 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 12 $9,000 −$9,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 12 $15,254 −$15,254 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $9,504 −$9,504 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Jun 12 $19,359 −$19,359 -100%
America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025? Jun 12 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jun 12 $15,000 −$15,000 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Jun 12 $17,590 −$17,590 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Jun 12 $5,428 −$5,428 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6,193 +$9,807 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13,928 +$6,072 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16,648 +$101,413 +609%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 09 $21,467 +$21,683 +101%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 26 $0 +$1 +809%
Spread: Austin FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $252 +$1,386 +550%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $6,665 +$13,125 +197%
Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5) Apr 25 $318 −$310 -98%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $328 −$322 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 25 $3,299 +$3,207 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $2,983 +$2,645 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $61,750 +$33,250 +54%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 02 $2 +$5 +285%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 02 $18,300 +$11,700 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $58,650 −$58,650 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $60,096 +$25,756 +43%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Dec 28 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? Dec 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $48,354 −$48,354 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Dec 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $195 −$195 -100%
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%? Nov 29 $99 +$103 +104%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $45,600 −$45,600 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $25,668 +$21,001 +82%
Will France win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $14,450 −$14,450 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $8,400 +$6,600 +79%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 06 $1,931 +$6,466 +335%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $4,920 −$4,920 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 30 $80,400 −$80,400 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 30 $20,484 +$7,219 +35%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $2,392 −$2,392 -100%
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30? Oct 28 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Will Russia capture Uspenivka by November 30? Oct 27 $1,165 −$1,165 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $30,675 +$31,932 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$215,567
sports 12% +$96,664
world 6% −$31,033
economics 3% −$41,337
politics 1% −$18,179
tech 1% −$13,400
crypto 0% +$6,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $9,750 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $8,062 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6,193 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $13,928 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $19,161 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,295 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $18,820 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $23,204 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4,917 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2,326 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $28,148 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $38 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $63 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $233 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $395 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $568 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $56 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -74.9% -77.3% 12% 12% -77.1%
≤30d 17 -34.6% -40.9% 18% 18% -12.2%
≤90d 24 +40.2% +26.9% 33% 33% +6.6%
all 80 -19.7% -27.4% 29% 29% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 29% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 29% -36.9%
15% -40.7% 26% -43.0%
20% -46.5% 22% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176,537.67 · official $176,537.67 (match) · 3500 history records