Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5a…b95d crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,157 (+11%) realized +$356 · open +$801
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%52W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$240
14 days−$102
30 days−$2,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$306
world 21% +$382
sports 10% +$2,109
economics 9% −$380
other 7% +$27
politics 7% −$658
tech 3% −$172
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +28.3% +16.0% 45% 45% +27.4%
≤30d 139 -39.6% -45.4% 24% 23% -51.9%
≤90d 145 -35.5% -41.6% 26% 25% -42.6%
all 200 -20.4% -28.0% 26% 25% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 25% -7.5%
10% -34.9% 24% -16.3%
15% -41.2% 22% -24.4%
20% -46.9% 18% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$32 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$2,682
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$801
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses52 / 148
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions54
Markets (closed)200 / 254
History coverage231d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $572 $1,388 +$817 (+143%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 10¢ 20¢ $164 $319 +$155 (+95%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $138 $160 +$22 (+16%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 73¢ 62¢ $116 $99 −$17 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 51¢ 36¢ $99 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $124 $64 −$60 (-48%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 66¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 41¢ 27¢ $45 $30 −$15 (-34%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+313%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $54 $19 −$35 (-65%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+215%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 66¢ 46¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-30%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+87%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $18 +$21 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +46%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$21 +48%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$158 +1142%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$28 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$41 +206%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $25 +$28 +114%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$87 +374%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $11 +$12 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $35 +$17 +48%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $55 −$15 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$5 -23%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 +$44 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 08 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$7 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $53 −$18 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 20¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 18¢ $41 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $18 16h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 24¢ $7 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 34h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 45¢ $20 36h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 66¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $5 36h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $5 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,682.04 · official $2,682.05 (match) · 1025 history records