Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b54…920f other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-4%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%35W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$141
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$426
sports 43% +$252
crypto 10% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +26.7% +14.6% 56% 33% -14.2%
≤30d 64 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 33% -14.2%
≤90d 64 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 33% -14.2%
all 64 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 33% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 33% -14.2%
10% +3.2% 19% -22.4%
15% -6.7% 14% -29.9%
20% -15.9% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage21d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $338 +$376 +111%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$68 +870%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$5 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $4 +$13 +340%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$15 -59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$9 +165%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +980%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $18 −$5 -27%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $75 +$9 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $162 +$46 +28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$12 +129%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 +$1 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $42 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $47 +$8 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$21 -68%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 −$12 -27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $163 +$2 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $372 +$14 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$18 +262%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $62 −$7 -12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $5 45m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7 45m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $44 45m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $714 45m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $8 45m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $16 45m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $15 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $10 49m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $79 49m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $156 49m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 19¢ $5 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 96¢ $258 50m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $24 50m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $20 50m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $2 50m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $87 50m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $9 50m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $10 50m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 51m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $12 51m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 53m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $4 53m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY No 83¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records