Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8b53…02d8 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$189 (+50%) realized +$188 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$142
crypto 34% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +46.8%
≤30d 4 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +46.8%
≤90d 4 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +46.8%
all 4 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.1% 100% +46.8%
10% +43.9% 100% +32.7%
15% +30.0% 75% +19.9%
20% +17.2% 75% +8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $128 +$40 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$40 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $88 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $132 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $75 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $123 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.71 · official $87.71 (match) · 17 history records