Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b50…9e9e world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+29%) realized +$216 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$57
sports 18% +$90
politics 5% −$23
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +120.9% +99.9% 100% 100% +99.9%
≤30d 3 +22.0% +10.3% 67% 67% +53.2%
≤90d 4 +127.0% +105.4% 75% 75% +95.3%
all 16 -43.2% -48.7% 19% 19% +49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 19% +49.3%
10% -53.6% 19% +35.0%
15% -58.1% 19% +22.0%
20% -62.2% 12% +10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +65% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$7 · ×14.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage157d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 3¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $100 +$121 +121%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $100 +$45 +45%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 21 $31 +$136 +442%
Will Trump say "Putin" during the State of the Union address? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during the State of the Union address? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "XRP" this week? (February 15) Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 15) Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $221 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $16 14d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $100 14d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $100 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $100 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $31 45d
Will Trump say "Putin" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 128d
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address? BUY No 42¢ $5 128d
Will Trump say "Maduro" during the State of the Union address? BUY No 20¢ $3 128d
Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address? BUY No 9¢ $2 128d
Will Trump say "XRP" this week? (February 15) BUY Yes 3¢ $3 128d
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 15) BUY Yes 10¢ $3 128d
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? BUY No 31¢ $5 128d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 142d
Will the US strike Iran next? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 142d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 22¢ $10 142d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Lopes 43¢ $20 142d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.92 · official $20.96 (match) · 21 history records