Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

8B 0x8b50…ef4c other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$377 (-9%) realized −$376 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%18W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Kalshi-fit3%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$43

7 days−$1,143

14 days−$377

30 days−$265

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-57.8%	-61.8%	21%	21%	-58.5%
≤30d	30	+1.1%	-8.5%	60%	60%	-15.9%
≤90d	30	+1.1%	-8.5%	60%	60%	-15.9%
all	30	+1.1%	-8.5%	60%	60%	-15.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	60%	-15.9%
10%	-17.3%	60%	-23.9%
15%	-25.3%	60%	-31.3%
20%	-32.6%	27%	-38.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +53% → late -51% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$125 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized−$376

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses18 / 12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)30 / 33

History coverage15d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	No	85¢	86¢	$107	$108	+$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	No	81¢	80¢	$102	$100	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$101	−$2	-2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w	Jun 18	$101	+$46	+45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AND	Jun 18	$214	+$114	+53%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 17	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 17	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$203	−$107	-53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$123	−$123	-100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 17	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 17	$203	−$203	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$203	−$203	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$305	−$305	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$202	+$97	+48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$101	+$42	+41%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$101	+$44	+43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 10	$101	+$44	+44%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 10	$101	+$40	+40%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$101	+$57	+57%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$101	+$80	+79%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$101	+$55	+54%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 08	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$101	+$42	+41%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$102	+$166	+162%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 07	$102	+$116	+114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 07	$44	+$22	+50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$101	+$68	+67%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 06	$101	+$44	+44%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?	Jun 05	$197	+$112	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	85¢	$107	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	81¢	$103	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-	SELL	59¢	$99	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-	BUY	59¢	$101	9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	63¢	$101	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w	BUY	68¢	$101	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	65¢	$214	4d
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$21	4d
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$30	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	72¢	$72	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	56¢	$95	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	93¢	$300	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$145	9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	9d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.74 · official $207.74 (match) · 72 history records