Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b4b…541b
other · 154 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$279,129 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$165,322 · open +$113,389
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$2,655,973
Realized+$165,322
Unrealized+$113,389
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses98 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$462
Open positions54
Markets (closed)127 / 154
History coverage61d
Avg bet$24,496
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 54 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,479
7 days−$38,109
14 days−$33,930
30 days+$16,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $271,425 $271,287 −$137 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $235,335 $269,341 +$34,005 (+14%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $249,250 $248,875 −$375 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $208,645 $213,955 +$5,311 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $155,028 $171,950 +$16,922 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $132,349 $138,799 +$6,450 (+5%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $108,096 $121,017 +$12,920 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $108,790 $108,515 −$275 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $104,934 $107,848 +$2,914 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $104,801 $105,070 +$269 (+0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $98,365 $98,614 +$249 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $94,600 $94,850 +$250 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $90,000 $91,500 +$1,500 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83,000 $90,000 +$7,000 (+8%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $74,889 $80,059 +$5,170 (+7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $49,342 $49,417 +$75 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $40,399 $47,603 +$7,203 (+18%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $39,800 $39,860 +$60 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $25,851 $26,463 +$612 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $23,806 $25,447 +$1,641 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 95¢ 91¢ $24,030 $23,154 −$877 (-4%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19,800 $19,890 +$90 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $19,840 $19,870 +$30 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $12,832 $19,288 +$6,456 (+50%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $19,166 $19,181 +$15 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Raptors vs. Grizzlies Jun 12 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 12 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 12 $2,764 −$2,764 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets Jun 12 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 12 $6,898 −$6,898 -100%
Magic vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 12 $8,216 −$8,216 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $4,220 −$4,220 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Jun 12 $3,268 −$3,268 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,757 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$11 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $10,665 +$335 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9,980 +$20 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $202 +$48 +24%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $10,771 +$424 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $612 +$28 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $11,238 +$22 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,503 +$10 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $3,316 +$17 +0%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6,294 +$6 +0%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,432 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $88,182 +$119 +0%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $468 +$32 +7%
Lyon: Miguel Damas vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 09 $658 +$7 +1%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $480 +$20 +4%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $9,940 +$60 +1%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $5,579 +$420 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4,801 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10,004 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $73,944 +$73 +0%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $420 +$4 +1%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,911 +$5 +0%
Will Tochigi City FC vs. Reilac Shiga end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Reilac Shiga win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $36,834 +$37 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 03 $60,234 +$406 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $128,682 +$3,736 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $4,930 +$50,070 +1016%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $2,890 +$75,096 +2599%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$17,418
crypto 17% +$136,589
world 10% +$113,474
politics 7% +$12,576
sports 4% −$11,589
economics 1% +$50,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $6,158 23m
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 34m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $4,720 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $223 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $607 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $743 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $191 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 96¢ $11,566 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $286 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23,698 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $896 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $404 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $55 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $16 3h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 3h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 3h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -25.4% -32.5% 71% 4% -20.7%
≤30d 49 -2.5% -11.8% 73% 6% -6.8%
≤90d 127 +22.4% +10.8% 77% 23% -2.7%
all 127 +22.4% +10.8% 77% 23% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 23% -2.7%
10% +0.2% 15% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -9.5% 10% -20.5%
20% -18.4% 9% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,655,973.03 · official $2,655,973.03 (match) · 3500 history records