Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8b4b…531e sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$4
other 25% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.8% -32.0% 67% 33% -6.3%
≤30d 4 -43.6% -49.0% 50% 25% -18.2%
≤90d 4 -43.6% -49.0% 50% 25% -18.2%
all 4 -43.6% -49.0% 50% 25% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 25% -18.2%
10% -53.9% 0% -26.1%
15% -58.3% 0% -33.2%
20% -62.4% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $8 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $2 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 78¢ $10 19m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 80¢ $11 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 9h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 82¢ $11 10d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 12¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.65 · official $13.65 (match) · 12 history records