Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b49…69c1 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,850 (-4%) realized −$1,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%67W / 46L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,106
7 days−$7,736
14 days−$7,736
30 days−$7,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,543
world 12% −$3,823
sports 3% +$273
crypto 0% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +6.7% -3.5% 35% 26% -62.9%
≤30d 34 +6.7% -3.5% 35% 26% -62.9%
≤90d 35 +7.6% -2.7% 37% 29% -62.3%
all 113 +6.9% -3.3% 59% 55% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 55% -13.6%
10% -12.6% 44% -21.8%
15% -21.0% 28% -29.4%
20% -28.7% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$274 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses67 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage191d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $809 −$56 -7%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$78 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-20? Jun 18 $315 −$315 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-20? Jun 18 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $4,366 −$4,366 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,081 +$73 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$48 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $400 +$12 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$99 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$78 +77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$37 -36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $403 +$104 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$203 -67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $201 +$28 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $202 +$110 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $401 +$34 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $382 +$79 +21%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$177 +1720%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $96 +$35 +37%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $385 +$315 +82%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $3,358 +$366 +11%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-19? Feb 20 $4,996 +$242 +5%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $4,501 +$495 +11%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14? Feb 19 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $500 +$1,034 +207%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $300 +$123 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $500 +$235 +47%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $500 +$258 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $1,800 +$408 +23%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $1,400 +$585 +42%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $1,739 +$1,665 +96%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $750 +$23 +3%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Feb 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Feb 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 47m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $409 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $45 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $42 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $577 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $571 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $123 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records