Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b47…1fae other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$92 (-10%) realized −$96 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$3
sports 19% −$31
finance 7% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -34.8% -41.0% 32% 32% -11.0%
≤30d 19 -34.8% -41.0% 32% 32% -11.0%
≤90d 21 -41.0% -46.6% 29% 29% -18.4%
all 21 -41.0% -46.6% 29% 29% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 29% -18.4%
10% -51.7% 29% -26.2%
15% -56.4% 24% -33.3%
20% -60.7% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$25 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage59d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $98 $103 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$36 +52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$31 -88%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$19 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$85 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$30 -75%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $73 +$67 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $120 +$68 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$68 +197%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 19 $35 −$34 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 19 $34 −$33 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $99 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $69 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $73 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $120 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $127 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.91 · official $102.91 (match) · 33 history records