Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b46…e83c
other · 129 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$289 -56%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$279 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions51
Markets (closed)78 / 129
History coverage157d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 51 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$15 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $2 +$1 +64%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 29 $4 +$1 +30%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Nets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Nets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Jazz Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Penguins Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit Minneapolis-Saint Paul by January 16? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Suns Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. 76ers Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Brisbane International: Diana Shnaider vs Madison Keys Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bikinis back on X by January 16? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: D2 Hustlers SEA vs Team Nemesis (BO3) Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei public appearance by Friday? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 12? Jan 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will China's annual inflation decrease by ≤-0.3% in December? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Jan 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 9? Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 10? Jan 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 11 $1 +$2 +212%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $1 +$1 +56%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Knicks vs. Suns Jan 10 $1 +$1 +108%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $1 +$2 +212%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $117 −$100 -85%
Brisbane International: Sebastian Korda vs Alex Michelsen Jan 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 30% −$81
economics 27% −$122
other 14% −$34
sports 9% +$10
world 9% −$42
tech 6% −$13
politics 3% −$7
weather 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 13m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 14m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 17m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 17m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -48.8%
≤30d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -48.8%
≤90d 9 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 22% -50.0%
all 78 -38.1% -44.0% 28% 26% -67.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 26% -67.4%
10% -49.4% 24% -70.5%
15% -54.3% 22% -73.4%
20% -58.7% 21% -76.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.66 · official $54.66 (match) · 204 history records