Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b44…8c14
politics · 37 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage268d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $16 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $24 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% +$1
world 31% +$1
other 19% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $38 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $4 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $38 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $42 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $40 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $40 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 8d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 90¢ $22 254d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 98¢ $11 254d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 98¢ $11 256d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $11 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 25% -8.6%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 12% -9.0%
all 36 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.09 · official $42.09 (match) · 110 history records