Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b44…b30a sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-11%) realized −$90 · open −$151
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$199
other 7% −$43
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 36% -14.7%
≤30d 52 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -15.7%
≤90d 52 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -15.7%
all 52 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 38% -15.7%
10% -31.0% 38% -23.7%
15% -37.7% 38% -31.1%
20% -43.8% 37% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$33 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage26d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 57¢ $98 $171 +$73 (+74%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 34¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 20¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-55%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$41 +80%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $57 +$87 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$134 +262%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 +$116 +110%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 −$48 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 −$46 -92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$79 +156%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $24 +$36 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$5 +50%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$6 +109%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $10 +$11 +107%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 May 24 $2 +$2 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $49 30m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 33m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $80 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $57 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $49 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $44 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $49 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $47 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $57 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 33h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $62 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.54 · official $226.55 (match) · 84 history records