Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b42…405a crypto 698 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+1%) realized +$190 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%286W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$203
world 20% +$341
crypto 12% −$261
finance 3% −$109
tech 1% −$125
other 1% −$36
politics 0% −$27
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 31% -10.1%
≤30d 182 -16.4% -24.4% 37% 31% -3.8%
≤90d 687 -18.9% -26.6% 42% 34% -8.8%
all 687 -18.9% -26.6% 42% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 34% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 27% -17.5%
15% -40.1% 20% -25.5%
20% -45.9% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses286 / 401
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)687 / 698
History coverage77d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $58 $14 −$44 (-75%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-49%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-93%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 26 $103 +$116 +113%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $45 +$27 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $51 −$47 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $18 −$7 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $45 +$14 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $46 +$66 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $113 +$38 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $22 −$2 -11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 23 $112 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 23 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $61 +$111 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 23 $294 −$152 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 23 $39 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 23 $53 −$39 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 20? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 23 $6 +$3 +51%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 23 $11 +$2 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $38 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? Jun 22 $37 −$32 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $538 +$237 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $356 −$86 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 19 $376 +$52 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 +$35 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 95¢ $24 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 96¢ $83 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $10 22h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? SELL No 4¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL Yes 62¢ $58 38h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $51 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 41h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.25 · official $69.60 (match) · 3184 history records