Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b41…de3e
crypto · 856 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$98 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses414 / 442
Open positions0
Markets (closed)856 / 856
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day270.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 856 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -0.5% -9.9% 51% 39% -11.5%
≤30d 856 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 34% -12.7%
≤90d 856 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 34% -12.7%
all 856 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 34% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover270.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 34% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 22% -21.1%
15% -27.3% 13% -28.7%
20% -34.5% 7% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records