Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b3c…5513
world · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Open positions16
Markets (closed)28 / 39
History coverage14d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day250.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 16 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 75¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -181%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $153 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% −$2
politics 25% $0
other 5% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 3m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 17m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 18m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 24m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 24m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 36m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 36m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 44m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 45m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 59m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 59m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 28 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 0% -9.8%
all 28 -7.4% -16.2% 4% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover250.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
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