Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b3a…a23b other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 18% −$1
politics 11% −$3
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 10% -9.2%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $145 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 02 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 26 $14 $0 -2%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $15 $0 -3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $17 $0 +2%
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph's Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $36 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.49 · official $43.85 (match) · 148 history records