Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b38…2bbf other 34 markets active 10h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,593 (-24%) realized −$2,593 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,381
7 days−$1,491
14 days−$1,491
30 days−$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,026
sports 26% −$1,461
crypto 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 46% -26.5%
≤30d 24 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 46% -26.5%
≤90d 33 -13.9% -22.1% 61% 39% -32.1%
all 34 -16.5% -24.4% 59% 38% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 38% -32.2%
10% -31.7% 21% -38.6%
15% -38.3% 12% -44.6%
20% -44.3% 12% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$299 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,593
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage170d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? Jun 18 $362 −$360 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Second half draw? Jun 18 $896 −$893 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $820 +$152 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: Second half draw? Jun 17 $461 −$459 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 +$2 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $246 +$45 +18%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $158 +$102 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? Jun 16 $268 +$49 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$35 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $75 +$138 +184%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $97 +$26 +27%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$203 -50%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$106 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,103 +$119 +11%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Pharos FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Pharos FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +9%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,010 +$253 +25%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 24 $1,300 −$1,259 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 20 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $362 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Second half draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $896 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $820 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 32h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $300 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $246 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $268 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $158 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $97 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $75 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $381 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 78¢ $302 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $194 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $229 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records