Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8b37…5477 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$143 (-16%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$44
sports 34% −$192
crypto 13% −$7
other 11% +$14
tech 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -64.6% -67.9% 0% 0% -61.3%
≤30d 5 -64.6% -67.9% 0% 0% -61.3%
≤90d 5 -64.6% -67.9% 0% 0% -61.3%
all 18 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 39% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 39% -24.9%
10% -39.5% 28% -32.1%
15% -45.3% 6% -38.6%
20% -50.7% 0% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage239d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$6 -18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$30 -49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Nov 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 28 $50 +$18 +37%
Heat vs. Bulls Nov 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $12 −$3 -27%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? Nov 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Nov 15 $60 −$3 -6%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 12 $100 +$14 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $100 −$3 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 29 $26 +$9 +34%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 28 $9 +$3 +30%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 28 $100 +$14 +14%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Oct 22 $50 +$13 +27%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 22 $50 +$17 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $48 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $25 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $29 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 30h
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $68 199d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? SELL No 100¢ $68 199d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 57¢ $26 206d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? BUY No 62¢ $31 211d
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? SELL Yes 69¢ $57 212d
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 73¢ $50 216d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL No 100¢ $114 216d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY No 88¢ $100 218d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 28¢ $97 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2? SELL No 67¢ $35 229d
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2? BUY No 50¢ $26 231d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 231d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 231d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? SELL No 98¢ $114 231d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? BUY No 86¢ $100 237d
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? SELL Yes 71¢ $63 237d
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? SELL No 93¢ $67 237d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $9 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records