Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b35…b11f crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$17
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$14
other 44% +$11
sports 5% +$2
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +22.6% +10.9% 55% 55% +2.3%
≤30d 63 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 48% -10.3%
≤90d 63 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 48% -10.3%
all 63 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 48% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -10.3%
10% -21.4% 41% -18.9%
15% -29.0% 38% -26.8%
20% -35.9% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +271%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +229%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +320%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$7 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +158%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $32 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $9 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records