Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b32…6e9f crypto 1490 markets active 7h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-3%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%687W / 797L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$45
14 days−$74
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$26
weather 18% −$32
other 7% +$17
sports 0% +$5
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -25.3% -32.5% 28% 23% -29.2%
≤30d 639 -19.5% -27.1% 28% 24% -22.3%
≤90d 1484 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 38% -13.8%
all 1484 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 38% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 38% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 23% -22.1%
15% -34.3% 18% -29.6%
20% -40.7% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses687 / 797
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1484 / 1490
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+941%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$7 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$7 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 41¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 57¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.07 (match) · 3500 history records