Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b31…8ee2 crypto 945 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,842 (-23%) realized −$483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate75%707W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day231.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$167
14 days−$483
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$393
other 9% −$90
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -7.0% -15.8% 83% 5% -15.0%
≤30d 944 -13.1% -21.4% 75% 8% -14.9%
≤90d 944 -13.1% -21.4% 75% 8% -14.9%
all 944 -13.1% -21.4% 75% 8% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover231.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 8% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 4% -23.0%
15% -35.7% 1% -30.5%
20% -42.0% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses707 / 237
Open positions0
Markets (closed)944 / 945
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day231.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 944 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records