Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b30…068a other 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (257 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-5%) realized −$134 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%116W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day256.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$110
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (257 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 +70.2% +54.0% 27% 24% -12.3%
≤30d 417 +61.4% +46.0% 28% 24% -10.5%
≤90d 417 +61.4% +46.0% 28% 24% -10.5%
all 417 +61.4% +46.0% 28% 24% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.0% 24% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here +32.0% 22% -19.1%
15% +19.3% 21% -26.9%
20% +7.6% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +135% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses116 / 301
Open positions41
Markets (closed)417 / 170
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day256.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 359 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $1 +$2 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$4 -1334%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +467%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$2 -520%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$6 -1038%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -150%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$6 -1940%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +1793%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -194%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -165%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -157%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -185%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -639%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +1461%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -133%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -1305%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$2 -1165%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -290%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -567%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -491%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -72475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 28m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 41m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 44m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 56m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 58m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 58m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.37 · official $48.89 (match) · 3500 history records