Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8B 0x8b30…72f0 crypto 825 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$408 (-9%) realized −$409 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%286W / 536L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$137
14 days−$238
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$609
other 2% −$2
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -34.2% -40.5% 30% 28% -32.3%
≤30d 597 -25.4% -32.5% 34% 30% -23.0%
≤90d 822 -23.7% -31.0% 35% 30% -22.4%
all 822 -23.7% -31.0% 35% 30% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 30% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 24% -29.8%
15% -43.6% 19% -36.6%
20% -49.1% 15% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$409
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses286 / 536
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)822 / 825
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.70 · official $41.81 · 3500 history records