Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b2d…4a62 sports 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,108 (+14%) realized +$3,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%97W / 83L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$283est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$135
14 days−$200
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$767
other 33% +$1,987
finance 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.4% -18.0% 25% 25% -33.7%
≤30d 20 -20.8% -28.3% 35% 30% -25.6%
≤90d 180 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 48% +2.1%
all 180 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 48% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 48% +2.1%
10% -17.1% 44% -7.6%
15% -25.1% 38% -16.6%
20% -32.4% 31% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$73 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses97 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage76d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $102 +$266 +261%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $205 −$203 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $166 −$149 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $84 +$23 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $42 +$14 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $86 +$13 +15%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $63 −$31 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $161 +$209 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 +$25 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $187 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $99 −$96 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $65 +$85 +130%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 19 $173 −$156 -90%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 19 $141 −$141 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $95 +$103 +109%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 18 $91 −$64 -70%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $100 −$87 -87%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $75 +$75 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $104 +$101 +97%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 17 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $60 +$120 +200%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $105 −$103 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 17 $141 +$139 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $183 +$177 +97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $253 +$489 +193%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso May 16 $184 +$234 +127%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $69 −$54 -78%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $32 +$10 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $136 +$81 +59%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $25 +$70 +280%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $74 +$79 +108%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 14 $151 +$94 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 14 $58 +$42 +73%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner May 14 $51 +$25 +49%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 14 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 14 $25 +$23 +92%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winne May 14 $44 +$25 +58%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner May 14 $66 −$66 -99%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $64 +$29 +45%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $19 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $73 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $331 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 45h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $102 47h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1161 history records