Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b2b…c3a3 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$37 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%30W / 19L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 47% -0.5%
≤30d 49 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 47% -0.5%
≤90d 49 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 47% -0.5%
all 49 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 47% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 47% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 35% -10.0%
15% -17.4% 31% -18.7%
20% -25.5% 20% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 83¢ 100¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 60¢ 69¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 44¢ 30¢ $12 $9 −$4 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$10 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.52 · official $82.44 · 276 history records