Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b27…01fd sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$689 (-38%) realized −$679 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$296
other 46% −$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -53.9%
≤30d 14 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -53.9%
≤90d 14 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -53.9%
all 14 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 29% -53.9%
10% -58.6% 29% -58.3%
15% -62.6% 29% -62.3%
20% -66.3% 21% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$96 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$679
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $89 $83 −$6 (-7%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$60 -59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 43¢ $96 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $91 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 23h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 38¢ $102 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $101 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 16¢ $42 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $102 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $102 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.28 · official $259.29 (match) · 27 history records