Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b26…fccf sports 45 markets active 6d ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-8%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$6
other 30% −$5
culture 14% +$1
finance 9% −$6
crypto 9% −$5
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +82.2% +64.9% 100% 100% +62.2%
≤30d 9 +37.2% +24.1% 78% 78% +25.7%
≤90d 12 +32.9% +20.2% 75% 75% +20.8%
all 42 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 43% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 43% -16.7%
10% -27.0% 29% -24.7%
15% -34.0% 26% -32.0%
20% -40.5% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage254d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 47¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? May 25 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Pelicans (-8.5) Apr 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Bulls (-7.5) Apr 09 $2 +$2 +108%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Sharks vs. Avalanche Mar 16 $1 $0 +19%
Blues vs. Stars Mar 16 $1 $0 +45%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will US Foods Holding (USFD) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 07 $1 $0 +11%
Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 07 $1 $0 +19%
Will Celsius Holdings (CELH) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 06 $1 +$1 +132%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Flames Nov 06 $1 $0 +44%
Sharks vs. Kraken Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 06 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Oct 06 $3 −$2 -66%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 06 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 01 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Oct 01 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 12d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $2 12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $2 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 12d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 69d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 69d
Warriors vs. Wizards SELL Warriors 100¢ $6 92d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 92d
Spread: Pelicans (-8.5) BUY Pelicans 66¢ $1 92d
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) BUY Rockets 47¢ $2 92d
Spread: Bulls (-7.5) BUY Bulls 48¢ $2 92d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Warriors 89¢ $5 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 93d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 93d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $1 132d
Sharks vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 84¢ $1 132d
Blues vs. Stars BUY Stars 69¢ $1 132d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Thunder 32¢ $1 132d
Timberwolves vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 64¢ $2 132d
Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 223d
Will US Foods Holding (USFD) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.36 · official $8.36 (match) · 75 history records