Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b24…e6ea other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$12
other 37% −$1
politics 9% −$2
economics 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +3.8% -6.1% 33% 7% -8.0%
≤90d 15 +3.8% -6.1% 33% 7% -8.0%
all 55 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage258d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $109 +$2 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $38 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $56 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $18 +$13 +72%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $21 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 14 $2 $0 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $20 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $14 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $5 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $50 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $60 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $58 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 40h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $52 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $60 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $25 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $18 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $7 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $4 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $47 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $47 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $54 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.93 · official $28.93 (match) · 266 history records