Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1f…cd31 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days+$2
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$22
other 35% −$4
politics 13% +$2
finance 6% +$38
sports 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 43 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 2% -9.4%
all 48 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage99d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $173 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $68 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $363 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $180 −$6 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $371 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $185 −$5 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $203 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $185 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $51 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $203 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $361 +$8 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $424 +$7 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $374 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $181 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $345 +$19 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $524 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $123 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $205 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $219 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $6 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $156 −$3 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $177 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $348 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $544 +$4 +1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 23 $264 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $216 +$38 +18%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $846 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $985 −$43 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,083 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $701 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $179 +$4 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $188 −$1 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 16 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $178 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $34 −$2 -7%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $1,036 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $114 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $162 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $161 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $12 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $173 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $191 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $191 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $174 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $169 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $147 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $174 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $192 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $192 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records