Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1c…a0d9 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day102.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$10
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 30% -13.3%
≤30d 20 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 30% -13.3%
≤90d 20 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 30% -13.3%
all 20 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 30% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 30% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 15% -21.6%
15% -33.5% 10% -29.2%
20% -40.0% 10% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day102.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.67 · official $19.67 (match) · 111 history records