Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b1c…1ec7 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+6%) realized +$84 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$29
other 39% +$17
sports 3% −$23
world 1% +$14
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +30.9%
≤30d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +30.9%
≤90d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +30.9%
all 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% +30.9%
10% -21.8% 50% +18.3%
15% -29.3% 50% +6.9%
20% -36.3% 50% -3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $380 $341 −$38 (-10%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $206 $204 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $115 $131 +$16 (+14%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? No 75¢ 84¢ $87 $97 +$10 (+11%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $31 $36 +$4 (+14%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award? Yes 13¢ 39¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+198%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 86¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 4¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Will Payton Tolle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 86¢ $12 40m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 42m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA BUY No 4¢ $26 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? SELL No 81¢ $10 1h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 57¢ $208 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 11h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 75¢ $49 21h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 21h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 21h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $192 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 3d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? BUY No 75¢ $97 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $118 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $135 3d
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year awa BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3d
Will Payton Tolle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.78 · official $920.36 (match) · 24 history records