Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1b…1223 crypto 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$444 (-41%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%278W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$447
7 days−$448
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$408
crypto 37% −$5
tech 23% −$40
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.1% -35.0% 0% 0% -69.9%
≤30d 6 -28.1% -35.0% 0% 0% -69.9%
≤90d 263 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 6% -51.5%
all 355 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 6% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -47.8%
10% -19.5% 1% -52.8%
15% -27.3% 0% -57.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses278 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $408 −$407 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $146 −$20 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $100 −$19 -20%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 22¢ $4 1h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 23¢ $5 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $408 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 49¢ $126 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 29¢ $80 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $7 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $19 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $28 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $28 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $3 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $3 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 55¢ $24 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $44 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $26 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 56¢ $3 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 56¢ $33 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $2 22h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $28 22h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 838 history records