Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1b…a60a politics 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
politics 22% +$3
other 19% +$2
crypto 8% −$1
sports 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 0% -10.6%
all 43 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage476d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $28 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -18%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $60 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 23 $17 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $12 $0 +2%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 13 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $18 +$1 +8%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $2 −$1 -46%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 21 $14 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $27 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $27 18h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $29 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $6 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $6 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 26d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 99¢ $3 335d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $9 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $5 361d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 93¢ $14 381d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $13 381d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $1 381d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $13 383d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $12 383d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? BUY No 97¢ $12 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.60 · official $27.60 (match) · 104 history records