Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8b19…bac4 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+2%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$185
tech 16% +$1
crypto 15% −$4
sports 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.0% -1.3% 100% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 7 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 29% -1.5%
≤90d 7 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 29% -1.5%
all 20 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 20% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 20% -7.3%
10% -12.2% 10% -16.2%
15% -20.7% 10% -24.3%
20% -28.5% 10% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage148d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 04 $12 $0 +4%
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? Jun 04 $19 +$2 +11%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. FC Universitario: O/U 1.5 May 19 $12 +$1 +10%
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-1.5) May 19 $17 +$1 +8%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $72 +$52 +72%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $161 +$182 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 20 Feb 19 $991 −$3 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $3,146 −$1 -0%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 Feb 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $983 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,059 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $18 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $12 5d
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 90¢ $15 12d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 96¢ $12 15d
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 90¢ $19 21d
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $16 28d
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. FC Universitario: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $12 35d
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-1.5) BUY CD Santa Clara 92¢ $17 58d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 20? BUY Up 47¢ $161 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $72 115d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY Vancouver Surge 31¢ $11 116d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY Vancouver Surge 31¢ $64 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 20 SELL No 98¢ $553 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 20 SELL No 99¢ $404 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 20 SELL No 99¢ $31 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 20 BUY No 99¢ $991 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,072 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $577 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $433 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $7 116d
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes $16 116d
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes $16 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 SELL Yes $9 117d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 BUY Yes $10 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.77 · official $17.77 (match) · 57 history records