Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b18…de94 crypto 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$212 (-7%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate67%110W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$379
14 days+$379
30 days+$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$129
other 37% −$613
sports 15% +$602
politics 3% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +22.8% +11.1% 56% 56% +30.9%
≤30d 9 +22.8% +11.1% 56% 56% +30.9%
≤90d 9 +22.8% +11.1% 56% 56% +30.9%
all 164 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 29% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 29% -16.8%
10% -19.9% 19% -24.7%
15% -27.6% 16% -32.0%
20% -34.7% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses110 / 54
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage180d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$88 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $218 −$118 -54%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $177 +$351 +199%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 +$166 +203%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $86 +$15 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $50 −$23 -46%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Feb 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 27 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 26 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $34 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $218 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $528 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 35h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 35h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $248 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $44 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 23¢ $27 107d
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 42¢ $50 108d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 11¢ $10 108d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 108d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 11¢ $10 109d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records