Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b14…56da sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,711per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3,711
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $3,997 $0 -0%
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) Jun 26 $5,048 $0 -0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $3,400 −$1 -0%
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) Jun 24 $2,399 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $400 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 2h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $315 21h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $315 22h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $315 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records