Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b0f…fc09 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,362 (-8%) realized −$4,362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%99W / 62L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,509
other 3% −$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.6% -1.7% 50% 50% -16.6%
≤30d 4 -45.7% -50.9% 25% 25% -27.6%
≤90d 4 -45.7% -50.9% 25% 25% -27.6%
all 161 -9.5% -18.2% 61% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 43% -17.8%
10% -26.0% 34% -25.6%
15% -33.1% 25% -32.8%
20% -39.7% 18% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$213 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses99 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage230d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $996 −$394 -40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $489 +$278 +57%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $199 −$195 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 28 $1,106 −$65 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 28 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 28 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$97 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$97 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$97 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 17 $1,153 +$91 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 17 $200 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$90 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 17 $110 +$91 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$104 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 17 $300 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 17 $40 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 17 $300 −$145 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 17 $1,351 +$75 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 17 $1,102 +$208 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 17 $153 +$78 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 17 $200 +$81 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 17 $200 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 17 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 17 $200 +$52 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $602 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $996 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $766 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $489 18h
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $199 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $144 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $500 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,244 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,053 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,041 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1,006 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $201 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $110 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $100 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 406 history records