Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8b0e…3a6e crypto 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-9%) realized −$480 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%336W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days−$23
30 days−$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$500
crypto 16% −$112
other 11% +$42
world 7% +$16
weather 2% −$18
politics 1% +$6
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -23.0% -30.4% 44% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 332 -9.8% -18.4% 54% 39% -36.0%
≤90d 530 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 35% -18.7%
all 530 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 35% -18.7%
10% -21.7% 21% -26.5%
15% -29.3% 15% -33.6%
20% -36.2% 11% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses336 / 194
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions23
Markets (closed)530 / 553
History coverage84d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 74¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 17¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+237%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Grigor Dimitrov 66¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Katerina Siniakova 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Shintaro Mochizuki 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 73¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 54¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 1¢ $0 35m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $1 36m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ $1 36m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 54¢ $1 36m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 43m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 80¢ $1 47m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 66¢ $1 47m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $2 49m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 84¢ $2 50m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 86¢ $1 51m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $1 59m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 80¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 94¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.43 · official $36.44 (match) · 1725 history records